Improvement of consumer confidence of Ukrainians was observed in October 2011: the relevant index was 78.6 which is 3.9 p. higher than the indicator value in September. Index of the current situation was somewhat higher than index of economic expectations for the first time since period before crisis in 2008. The main driver for the CCI growth in October was significant increase of propensity to consume. This is proved by the consumer confidence survey in Ukraine, conducted by GfK Ukraine on a monthly basis.

In October 2011 the Consumer Confidence index (CCI) increased by 3.9 p. and reached 78.6. Index of the Current Situation improved by 6.3 p. up to 79.1. Its components changed in the following way:

• Index of Current Personal Financial Standing (x1) gained 3.7 p. and reached 75.5;
• Propensity to Consume (х5) grew by 8.9 p. up to 82.7.

Economic expectations in the country improved by 2.3 p. to 78.3. Components of this index changed as follows:

• Index of Expected Changes in Personal Financial Standing (х2)remained almost unchanged: the relevant index gained 0.8 p. up to 83.9;
• Index of Expected Economic Conditions in the Country Over the Next Year (х3) also remained on September level: the relevant index lost 0.4 p. and reached 70.3;
• Index of Expected Economic Conditions in the Country Over the Next 5 Years (х4) improved by 6.6 p. up to 80.5.

At the same time, expectations regarding changes in unemployment deteriorated in October: the relevant index has reached 135.3 which is 10.3 higher than in September. More pessimistic inflationary expectations were observed: index value increased by 2.2 p. and reached 186.8.

The following key trends were observed in October:

• For the first time since period before crisis of 2008 index of the current situation was somewhat higher than the index of economic expectations.
• The main driver of the CCI improvement in October was considerable growth of the propensity to consume (х5); this trend was the most vivid among respondents with income higher than average. The growth of index х5 occurred along with small increase of indices of the current situation and inflationary expectations. The last one was significantly affected by high expectations of the devaluation of hryvnia.
• Along with the general increase of CCI, expectations in two groups declined: in the group of citizens with income lower than average – due to the decline in expectations over the next year; and in the group of citizens from Western Ukraine – due to the higher pessimism regarding economic changes over the next year and the next five years as well.

More news - in Distance Selling Digest

Free Subscription to Distance Selling Digest

Source: GFK Ukraine